Real Kato Blog: Apple Watch: 2008 Predictions

It's that time of year again! Here's a look back at my 2007 predictions, and a look ahead at 2008.

Okay, first, how'd I do in 2007?

1. The iTV (which is now rumored to have the name "Mac Media Capsule", ugh) will have the ability to display high definition video. iTunes downloads might be just "near DVD quality", but HD is too important for Apple to omit. The iTV will depend on 802.11n wireless to get HD streaming. There will be no TV recording, though.

Bingo on this one, though admittedly, it was pretty easy. The good news is that it was called the AppleTV and not the "Mac Media Capsule".

2. We will see a true video iPod with touchscreen capability and all kinds of added functionality. It will be kind of a PDA, with organizer functions and a handful of games, but Apple will market it as a video player first.

Almost dead-on. I didn't predict that it would come first in the form of an iPhone, but the iPod Touch is just about what I predicted.

3. Mac Pro sales will boom after Apple cuts prices, and Adobe officially releases its Creative Suite 3.

Mmm, I can't really give myself credit for this one. Mac sales overall are good, but I can't say that Mac Pro sales have "boomed". And there hasn't been much in the way of price cuts.

4. Resolution independence will become a big deal for Apple, because Apple plans to put higher-resolution displays in MacBook Pros, and eventually its entire line of displays.

A full point here, but barely. Apple is emphasizing resolution-independence in Leopard, and the MacBook Pro does have a high-res display. But it hasn't been quite the big deal I thought it would be.

5. Three of the five computing product lines will see significant changes to their form factors. I think the three desktop lines are the prime candidates for refreshing.

Uh, zero points here. Form factors have remained essentially the same. The iMac has had a facelift, but it's not major.

6. Despite the continuing calls for a mini-tower Mac, Apple will stick with its current three-pronged strategy for desktops. But Mac Pro price cuts will make it tempting for "pro-sumer" users.

Half a point. The three-prong strategy continues, but no price cuts on the Pro.

7. We will see more and more 3D animation in Apple's user interfaces. We're seeing the start of it with the iTunes CD cover art flipbook, and the Time Machine interface. Apple will start to see value in using 3D for visual cues... and that will make them start to tinker with 3D-capable video displays in its advanced research division. Maybe 2008 or 2009 will be the year of 3D.

Half a point. We haven't seen much beyond what we already knew last January, but I still think Apple is keen on the idea.

8. iWork '07 will finally get a third program to supplement Pages and Keynote. It'll be a hybrid database and spreadsheet application of some sort.

Bingo, full point. It's called "Numbers" and it is a hybrid database-spreadsheet application.

9. Apple will start to emphasize home networking, and making it easier to manage sharing, backups, and so on. Apple, along with other computer manufacturers, will start to see home servers as a way to get more CPUs in every household. Apple will figure out that near-zero-maintenance home server appliance could be a major opportunity, especially coupled with the iTV.

Uh. No.

10. Apple's stock will split after it reaches $100 a share. I'll try this one again.

Half point. Apple's stock blew through $100, and in fact is hovering around $200, but hasn't split.

So in all: 5.5 points out of 10. Slightly better than last year.

This year's predictions:

1. Subnotebook, YES. I think it's coming. The rumors and signs are strong, and it seems the right time to explore a new category.

2. Tablet, NO. The technology still isn't there for a full-sized tablet; Apple will be content to rest on its iPod/iPhone platform as its "tablet".

3. New Mac Mini, YES. This product has been largely neglected, and it's far past time for something new. A $600 entry-level machine isn't very exciting any more, and the novelty of the smallness has worn off.

4. New Mac Pro, YES. The cheese grater form factor from the G5 days should be gone soon. It's a nice design, but Apple has probably been working on a new form factor ever since the Intel switch.

5. Movie Rentals, YES. Rentals through the iTunes Store for the iPod/iPhone/AppleTV will happen early in the year. AppleTV sales will see a bump, but unless there's more improvements to it, it still won't be a phenomenal hit.

6. Acquisition, NO. Apple's got a big cash hoard, but I don't see many attractive acquisition targets. Yeah, Apple would probably like to make moves into Web 2.0 or social networking (see #6 below), but they'd sooner try it themselves or with a partner than spend the billions needed to buy a big-time player like FaceBook.

7. Dot Mac improvements, NO. I've hoped too long for anything of significance like pro-level hosting. It'll be rinky-dinky Web 1.5 stuff, more of what we've got in iWeb now. (Actually, I'm hoping to reverse jinx this.)

8. Social Networking, YES. It's too important a phenomenon for Apple to ignore. I think Apple would love to partner with Google on Orkut, integrating it with iWeb.

9. Blu-Ray, NO. While Apple is a Blu-Ray backer, it's just not worth it for Apple to back this horse while the battle with HD-DVD is still in stalemate. Add $200 to the cost of their machines with a potentially dead-end technology? I think Jobs has learned his lesson on that by now.

10. Stock price target, $275. Success in movie rentals, plus a possible stock buyback, plus improvements to the iPhone, equals continued success for Apple stock. Stock split? Maybe.

Permalink 2 Comment

Posted by Ken in: techwatch

Comments

Comment #1 from Lisa Clark (Guest)
2008 Mar 20 - 9:27 am : #

Hey Ken,
My sister recommend I check out your site. I'm looking for confirmation of the rumors I'm hearing that Apple will release and new iPhone in June. I know they are planning the software update in June, but have you heard anything about new hardware? Particularly hardware that will help speed up the internet on the iPhone.

Thanks!
Lisa

Comment #2 from Ken (realkato)
2008 Mar 20 - 9:49 am : #

While it's likely that there'll be a hardware update to the iPhone this year (Apple's hardware product cycles are typically a year or less), I think the odds are slightly against that it'll include 3G wireless. It's high up there on the rumor mill, but as far as I know, the two big issues with 3G have not been resolved: 3G radios drain the battery, and AT&T has poor 3G (HSPDA) coverage.

Comments are closed for this post.

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