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<< Previous: We Win! (Detroit Red... | Next: Woo New iPhone Woo >>

We Win! (Barack Obama Edition)
Wednesday, 2008 June 4 - 10:40 pm
So Barack Obama has essentially clinched the Democratic nomination for the 2008 presidential election. Combining the pledged delegates from the primaries (which FINALLY ended yesterday), and the superdelegate endorsements, Obama now has the majority of the delegates, and is finally really free to focus on the general election.

Big questions still loom.

What will Hillary Clinton do? She hasn't released her delegates yet; presumably, she wants to hang onto them as leverage, perhaps to get a vice-presidential spot. I personally think that Clinton, as a somewhat polarizing figure, might be more harmful than useful on the Democratic ticket. I don't buy the reports that 25% of Clinton supporters will vote for McCain or stay home... that's what Romney and Huckabee supporters said when McCain got the Republican nomination, but they've since come around. The Democratic party base will heal and rally around Obama, no matter if Clinton is on the ticket or not. Meanwhile, many independent voters might be turned off by Clinton.

And anyway, I don't think vice-president is the best spot for Clinton. How about the Supreme Court? With the departure of Sandra Day O'Connor, and the possible pending resignation of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, it's quite likely that Obama would want to appoint a woman to the Court. And with Clinton being fairly well-respected in the Senate, a smooth confirmation seems likely. So maybe Obama could offer that to her, in exchange for her endorsement.

Just a thought.

As far as who Obama should select as his vice-presidential candidate, I think it's important for him to try to negate McCain's perceived advantages on military and foreign policy affairs, where McCain is attacking Obama heavily. So I think the top candidates might be Jim Webb, a decorated Vietnam veteran and Ronald Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, and Wesley Clark, the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO. Both have their downsides; Webb maybe too outspoken, and Clark made a rather poor showing during his own presidential campaign four years ago.

There's a possibility that Obama will go the other way, and find a woman to join him on the ticket to try to win back Clinton supporters. Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius is a potentially appealing choice, but it's hard to imagine him selecting a woman who's less qualified and less well-known than Clinton.

No matter who Obama selects, one thing is exciting for me this year: for the first time since I've moved to North Carolina, this state is a legitimate battleground state for the presidential election. Bush won this state by 13% in 2004, and by nearly the same margin in 2000. In 1996, while Bill Clinton won the national vote by 9%, he lost North Carolina by 5%. But this year, Obama might actually put this state in the blue column.

It's almost enough to make me volunteer for the campaign...

Permalink  4 Comment   Bookmark and Share
Posted by Ken in: politics

Comments

Comment #1 from Monty (monty)
2008 Jun 5 - 2:39 pm : #
Actually, I think the 25 percent is low. I suspect it to be closer to 35-40 percent of Clinton supporters will not support Obama. I know several Clinton supporters (lifetime Democrats, mind you, who have never voted Republican) who feel they will have to choose McCain over Obama.

I think most of those people feel that he is too inexperienced for the position, and that most people are simply caught up in his charismatic personality. (When he was drinking a PBR at Raleigh Times, I was reminded of how George Bush was chosen as the candidate most people would like to have a beer with ... That is interesting, because on that level, Obama has much more in common with Bush than McCain does -- a lack of international politics experience and a perception that people find him 'charming and down-to-earth')

A Clinton/Edwards ticket would have won easily, I think.

*Sigh* another election with a choice of between two equally bad white men (Yes, Obama is bi-racial. He is as much white as he is black. [Sidenote: I have XY chromosome, am I half female?]) :)
Comment #2 from Monty (monty)
2008 Jun 5 - 3:53 pm : #
And the biggest problem, I think, is that Obama supporters actually believe in politics. People who actually who believe in politics are not to be trusted. :)

Honestly though, I think I would have a hard time voting for Obama based on his supporters. They scare the living heck out of me.

I have never felt like I was stalked by a cult until the primaries, when they were everywhere.

I mean, I have lived in my place for eight years and have had not one visit from a Jehovah's Witness or Mormon missionary, who want to save my mortal soul. I received at least three visits in two weeks from Obama supporters.

And they all had this excited look in their eyes. They said things like, "I have taken off work for two weeks from Indiana to be here."

That guy is why I do not like Obama. I felt like I was talking to a Scientologist.

To paraphrase a bumpersticker,
Obama, save me from your followers.
Comment #3 from Ken (realkato)
2008 Jun 5 - 5:25 pm : #
First of all, I don't buy that 35-40% thing at all. There's no evidence of that. And while some 25% of Clinton supporters might say in polls now that they won't support Obama in the general election, that number will surely decline as the sour-grapes effect wears off. Again, you only have to look to the Republican party for the precedent. A few months ago, Republican blogs were full of people fuming over McCain's nomination, with die-hard conservatives swearing to vote Democratic or skip the election before voting for a guy they considered to be a traitor to the party. But now? Those people have largely come back around to support their party's nominee.

As far as the choice between Obama and McCain, you can look at it in one of two ways. If you're an issues-oriented person, you want the guy whose ideology best matches your own... and if you're an issues-oriented Democrat, that means you clearly cannot choose McCain.

On the other hand, you're judging the man by his personal credentials instead of his ideology, then you're justified in choosing McCain if experience is the top character trait you're using as a measurement. (And I guess that means, if given the chance, you'd choose Bush to be president again, since he clearly has the most experience at it.) But those who choose Obama for his charisma and intelligence are no less justified in their choice. To dismiss all Obama followers as mindless cultists is unfair and, frankly, insulting.
Comment #4 from Monty (monty)
2008 Jun 5 - 9:37 pm : #
Don't take anything I say about politics too seriously. I am more John Stewart than John Carville (or whoever is supposed to be serious about politics).

And I am not saying all followers are cultists. It is just that he got the cultists ... and they kept campaigning at my place ... and they scared the bejessus out of me. :)

I do find that a lot of people have the same enthusiasm for Obama that Bush supporters had for him prior to his first election. Everyone gets excited about change, and then discover that it was not as hot as promised, as the country discovered after eight years of Clinton Ver. 1.0. I just don't think there is that much difference between any of the candidates.

I like boring politicians...and provokoing Obama supporters :).... throwing mindless, non-rational reasons why people are not going to vote for him, just to get them worked up (I told one campaigner that I was identity voting -- so I would have to vote for the shorter candidate)

I mean, now that the Ron Paul zealots have gone back into the woodwork, who else am I supposed to harass:)

Plus, I read Digg. Anything popular on Digg I automatically hate. :)

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