Real Kato Blog: CFB 2024: Week 9

Michigan ekes out a rivalry win, but #1 Oregon looms next.

Michigan 24, Michigan State 17
Davis Warren got the start in this game, which I guess wasn't a huge surprise given Tuttle's struggles. (Tuttle announced his retirement from football this week; I guess he never really was 100%.) Warren did fine, completing 13/19 for 123 yards and a touchdown, and crucially, didn't turn the ball over. Alex Orji came in as a change-of-pace quarterback, which worked well as he proved to be an effective runner. I'd still like to see both quarterbacks in the game at the same time at some point; Orji can double as a tight end or running back when Warren is quarterbacking, while Warren could plausibly be deployed as a wideout (even if he's a pretty obvious decoy). This would prevent opposing defenses from substituting to run-heavy defensive personnel when Orji comes in.

Aside from Orji, though, Michigan's rushers had a tough day; Donovan Edwards had just 24 yards and Kalel Mulllings had just 18. This was somewhat due to MSU bringing their safeties screaming down against the run, but I spotted some poor blocking and inexplicable play-calling there too. I think Michigan's tendencies are too easy to spot. Though, on the other hand, that might have allowed Warren to be more effective on play-action.

MSU, meanwhile, seemed to have a field day on the ground, routinely gashing Michigan on third-and-long. I just can't figure out what Wink Martindale is thinking in these situations; his defense gaping rushing lanes and is making safeties having to make heroic tackles (which, too many times, they don't). It still seems like he just doesn't understand the college game, where not everyone is a superstar athlete.

Michigan's win was based on some breaks. MSU missed a short field goal early, and QB Aidan Chiles had a fumble that everyone could see coming a mile away as he was being chased from behind by Josiah Stewart. Those two plays were largely the difference in the game. MSU ended up outgaining Michigan by 87 yards and outpossessing Michigan by 14 minutes. I'd say this would have been a game MSU would have one 7 times out of 10. But luckily for Michigan, that's not what counts.

Michigan vs. #1 Oregon, 3:30 PM CBS
I... barely even want to watch this game. Oregon comes in with an 8-0 record and an offense averaging 467 yards a game. They beat Ohio State, they handily beat common opponents Illinois and MSU, and they are a two-touchdown favorite. It has all the makings of a massacre unless Michigan has a whole lot of luck. I think the best case is that Michigan keeps the score respectable. But it feels like a win is far out of reach.

Prediction: Oregon 45, Michigan 10.

Notable Results
#1 Oregon beat #20 Illinois 38-9, as we noted above.

#3 Penn State beat Wisconsin 28-13, with backup QB Beau Pribula coming in after Drew Allar was injured.

#4 Ohio State barely got by Nebraska 21-17.

#3 Texas held off #25 Vanderbilt 27-24.

#14 Texas A&M beat #8 LSU 38-23.

#12 Notre Dame stomped previously undefeated #24 Navy 51-14.

#13 Indiana remains unbeaten as they knocked off Washington 31-17.

#15 Alabama skunked #21 Missouri 34-0.

Games to Watch on TV
#4 Ohio State at #3 Penn State, 12:00 PM Fox
Minnesota at #24 Illinois, 12:00 PM FS1
Stanford at N.C. State, 12:00 PM ACCN
#1 Oregon at Michigan, 3:30 PM CBS
Florida at #2 Georgia, 3:30 PM ABC
#13 Indiana at Michigan State, 3:30 PM Peacock
Wisconsin at Iowa, 7:30 PM NBC

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Posted by Ken in: sports

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