Real Kato Blog: The Debate, Round 4 Results

For the first time, I thought Kerry fell behind in a debate. But he finished strong.

The moderator is Bob Schieffer from CBS news.

Kerry - Will our children ever live in a world as safe and secure as the world in which we grew up?

Kerry gives the old stump speech lines, about how stuff coming into our ports is not inspected, how airline cargo holds are not X-rayed, how we don't have enough firemen and policemen. Bush counters with his stump speech stuff: we're "making progress" (drink), we have to "stay on the offensive" (drink), and "freedom is on the march" (drink). Uh-oh, this is going to be another alcoholic evening. Kerry quotes Bush as being "not worried about Osama"; Bush calls that an ex-ag-ger-a-tion. (Bush is lying here: he used almost those exact words in a 2002 speech.) Too bad we don't have instant fact-checking. Kerry 2, Bush 2.

Bush - We have a severe shortage of flu vaccine; how did that happen?

(What the heck does that have to do with presidential politics? Stupid.) Bush talks about how we didn't allow "contaminated" British medicine into the country (not true; it was the British that stopped the export), and how we're now working with Canada to bring extra vaccines in. (Isn't Canada the place with those unsafe third-world drugs that you banned?) Bush makes some ridiculous argument to try to tie in medical litigation, and says vaccine manufacturers are worried about being sued. Huh. Kerry just talks about how health care isn't working, and how people don't have health insurance. True but irrelevant. Kerry 1, Bush 1.

Kerry - Costs of everything are rising; how can you keep promises without raising taxes?

Kerry says he'll reinstate "pay as you go". He says he's detailed how to pay for everything: ending tax break for wealthy, closing corporate tax loopholes, etc. Bush says "rhetoric doesn't match record" (drink). Cites voting to raise taxes 98 times (drink), raising budget caps 277 times (drink), 2.2 trillion in spending (drink). I'm getting hammered already. Bush drops the Kennedy label, and says "pay-go" means "you pay, he goes and spends it". No followup discussion here; that's a surprise, and it means all those misleading Bush figures get to slide. Kerry 2, Bush 3.

Bush - What do you say to someone who has lost his job to someone overseas?

Bush says "Bob, here's help for education and job training." (Um, Bob isn't the one out of work. Bygones.) Kerry notes how the president switches the subject from jobs to education; Bush looks confused by that remark. Kerry now rebuts fiscal responsibility charges from previous question (as he must, since he didn't get to followup earlier). Then he briefly talks about not extending health care benefits to the unemployed, and cuts in job training under Bush. Kerry 3, Bush 3.

Kerry - Is it fair to blame the administration entirely for the loss of jobs?

Kerry says he blames the President for the things on which he could have had an impact. He says he will make the playing field as fair as possible; notes where he didn't help Boeing against Airbus, and didn't fight China. (Kerry's stammering a bit, though.) Bush talks up tax breaks and putting money in people's pockets. Bush zinger: Kennedy is considered the conservative senator from Massachusetts. Kerry fails to defend himself, surprisingly. Kerry 2, Bush 3.

(Kerry is losing based on economic issues! This is a really bad sign.)

Bush - Do you believe homosexuality is a choice?

Bush waffles around here; he says we should respect people but defend the sanctity of marriage against "activist judges". Kerry says we are all God's children (smart to invoke religion here), and like Edwards, he names Dick Cheney's daughter. Says bluntly, it's not a choice. He notes how this is a civil rights and discrimination issue, and also notes how states should have the right to decide this. Kerry 3, Bush 2.

Kerry - Catholic priests say it's a sin to vote for someone who supports abortion rights and stem-cell research. What do you say to that?

Kerry gives a very thoughtful answer on how we can't legislate faith. He says specifically that he'll defend Roe v. Wade, but also talks about how faith motivates him. Bush says he'll "promote a culture of life" (death penalty notwithstanding, I guess); talks about the partial-birth abortion ban, and about funding adoption and abstinence programs. Kerry 3, Bush 3.

Bush - Who bears responsibility for the fact that health insurance costs have risen 38%? Is it drug companies, trial lawyers, the administration... ?

Bush says "I sure hope it's not the administration". Only he seems to think that's funny. Bush blames the problem on the fact that there are no market forces driving prices down. (Yeah, but that's because market forces are driving prices up.) He believes in health savings accounts (which won't help much). Then, predictably, he talks about medical litigation and the cost of "defensive" medicine. Finally he talks about how hospitals don't use information technology, because we're in the "buggy and horse [sic] days". Kerry says Bush stands in the way of things like importing drugs from Canada, and letting Medicare negotiate for lower costs. Kerry cites examples of where the President is wrong (i.e. lying). Kerry 3, Bush 3.

Kerry - Where are you going to get the money to pay for your health care plan?

Kerry cites news analysis calling Bush's characterization of his health care plan "fiction". Emphasizes words like "choice", "choose", "competition". Says preventative care will reduce costs. Bush cites some report, and emphasizes words like "rationing" and "government control". I think people will be confused by the arguments here, but FUD helps Bush in this case. Unfortunately Kerry does not shift the focus to Bush's [lack of] plan. Kerry 2, Bush 2.

Bush - How will you get the $1 trillion to pay for partial privatization of social security?

Bush first assures seniors that they'll get their checks. He says we need to have a different strategy, and that the cost of doing nothing exceeds the cost of saving the system. But of course he doesn't really answer the question, no more than Kerry answered the last one. Kerry says privatization is "an invitation to disaster". He says the congressional budget office's analysis cites $2 trillion in costs, and a 25-40% benefit cut. Kerry finally cites the $3 trillion in Bush's spending plan. Finally. Where has this argument been? Kerry 4, Bush 3.

Kerry - How can you save social security without cutting benefits?

Kerry wavers here. He doesn't really answer, but says we have to save the economy first, and then go back and look at Social Security. This is weak. Bush talks up tax cuts again, and accuses Kerry's plan as "more of the same". He doesn't talk about his own plan, but his point hits the mark. Kerry 2, Bush 3.

Bush - What do we do about illegal immigration?

Two surprises: a real domestic issue that people want to hear about, and an actual thoughtful answer from Bush. He favors a temporary-worker plan so that people can cross the border legally and work; he doesn't favor amnesty. Kerry goes back to make a point that tax cut benefits have been wiped out by higher costs, resulting in lower effective take-home pay for everyone (the lowest since 1927). A good point, Kerry, but late again! As for immigration: accuses Bush of not living up to 2000 campaign promises, cites leaky borders. Bush says Kerry doesn't understand how the borders work. Eh? Kerry says there are 4000 illegal border crossings a day. Kerry 3, Bush 3.

Kerry - The wage gap between rich and poor is increasing. Should we raise the minimum wage?

Ultra-softball for Kerry. Without equivocation, Kerry says we should. Republicans won't let us vote on it. Kerry would raise it to $7. He contrasts the potential benefit to working women versus the benefit given to the wealthy via tax cuts. He seems to be targeting women heavily in his remarks: he now talks about women's rights to equal salary. Bush shifts the topic to education, and the No Child Left Behind act. Uh, what? Kerry 4, Bush 0.

Bush - Will you look to overturn Roe v. Wade?

Bush: "I will have no litmus test." A short answer; he doesn't want to say much here. Kerry pounces on him. Kerry says he will not appoint a judge who will take away a constitutional right. (A well-worded answer.) Kerry goes on to talk about fairness, and the lack of funding for No Child Left Behind. Bush says education got 49% increase; Kerry says you measure progress not by percentages but by whether you got the job done, and says 500,000 kids lost afterschool programs, while $89 billion went to the richest americans. Darn, I wish they'd talked more about abortion rights. Kerry 3, Bush 2.

Kerry - Is there any relief for the "back-door draft"?

Kerry says overextension of armed forces is a reflection of bad policy. He supports the addition of two divisions, increasing the size of special forces, and deploying the national guard and reserve domestically for homeland security. He will get alliances to share the burden. Bush says we should succeed in Iraq and train Iraqis so they do the "hard work" (drink). He claims troops' morale is high. Bush goes back to "global test" thing (drink) and "international approval". Haven't we had enough of this? Kerry rewords his previous remark: we should pass a "truth standard". Bush is confused. Kerry 4, Bush 2.

Bush - why didn't you encourage Congress to extend assault weapons ban?

Bush says he believes in background checks, but believes in the right to own guns; he says we should prosecute people who commit crimes with guns. (We don't do this already?) He says Congress wasn't going to pass it anyway. (Weak... he's passing the buck again!) Kerry says it was a failure of Presidential leadership not to the ban. Kerry says he's a gun owner and a hunter but also a former prosecutor; he says law enforcement agencies wanted the assault weapons ban. Kerry 4, Bush 2.

Kerry - do you believe we still need affirmative action?

Kerry says we absolutely but regrettably still need it. He notes it doesn't just apply to people of color; also applies to women. (Again with the women!). He is careful to note that he opposes quotas; Bush's reaction tells me he was going to throw the word "quota" at Kerry until he said that. Of affirmative action, he says "mend it don't end it" because racism still exists. Kerry says Bush didn't meet with the NAACP or the Black Congressional Caucus. Bush is rattled a bit; says he did meet with the Black Congressional Caucus at the White House. Bush is right here; Kerry is wrong. But Bush oddly goes back to talking about education again. Then he talks about minority home ownership. Is he saying that because of that, we don't need affirmative action? Not sure. Kerry 3, Bush 2.

Bush - What part does your faith play on your policy decisions?

Bush says "faith is a big part of my life; i pray a lot." He says people are free to worship as they see fit, but he's stammering as he says it. He "receives calmness in the storm of the presidency". He believes "God wants everyone to be free". Kerry says we need to love our neighbor more. He notes that we have a separate and unequal school system, and that's not loving our neighbor. Kerry supports the right to practice or not to practice religion. Kerry 3, Bush 3.

Kerry - National unity has melted away since 9/11; will you set a priority in bringing the nation back together?

Kerry compliments Bush on actions immediately following 9/11, but notes that Bush now presides over the most divided electorate ever. Kerry says he's reached across the aisle (to John McCain). He wants to find the common ground, open up the political process (no "secret" meetings). I guess that's some reference to the energy policy meetings, but people won't get that. Bush says he's disappointed in partisanship. We "made good progress" (yeah, right), but Washington is tied up by special interests. Passing the buck again. Kerry 2, Bush 1.

Bush - All of us (Schieffer, Kerry, Bush) have strong wives and two daughters; what have you learned from them?

A dumb closing question. Bush gets laughs by saying he's learned to "listen to them", and to "stand up straight and not scowl"; gets more laughs saying Laura "speaks better English than I do". Kerry says "we all married up", "me so more than others" (some laughs). He talks about his mom, and praises Bush's family. What a stupid way to finish. Kerry 1, Bush 1.

Total score: Kerry 54, Bush 44.

The closing statements are predictably dull.

I think this was Kerry's worst performance. I think he scored points on social issues (where independents tend to lean a little bit liberal) but lost points on economic issues (where independents lean conservative). If Bush had any debating skill at all, he would have won tonight. But all in all, I don't think people will really be swayed much, except to gravitate in the direction they were already leaning.

The ABC poll scores it 42 Kerry, 41 Bush, 14 tie.
The CBS poll scores it 39 Kerry, 25 Bush, 36 tie.

Thus endeth the debates. Kerry didn't finish as strongly as he could have; he left a lot of arguments unspoken, which is a bit of a shame.

Just a few more weeks until we find out how this all pans out. I'm nervous but hopeful... as we all are, I'm sure.

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