Banner Logo
Home
The Real Kato
About Me
Twitter
Facebook
Frozen Lunches
Links
Kottke
Daring Fireball
Amalah
Secret Agent Josephine
Dooce
Contact



Archives
Most Recent

2024 March
2004 October
2004 September
2004 August
2004 July
2004 June
2004 May
2004 April
2004 March
2004 February
2004 January
2003 December
2003 November


Categories
All Categories 

bloggers 
books 
commentary 
dating 
food 
funnyhaha 
interesting 
life 
movies 
music 
politics 
reviews 
science 
site-business 
sports 
style 
techwatch 
television 
theater 
travel 


Recent Comments
On College Football 2022: Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Pre...
Ken said:
Yeah, we've both had our share of hope and disappointment in this game. Let's just hope for a good b...
On College Football 2022: Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Pre...
Dan* said:
I'm not sure how I feel about this game. On one hand, I feel pretty optimistic that we have the tale...
On College Football 2022: Week 1 Preview
Dan* said:
Glad to see you'll be back writing football again, Ken! Congrats on the easy win today. You didn't ...
On College Football 2021: Week 10 Recap and Week 11 P...
Ken said:
Yeah, sorry one of our teams had to lose. I've come to appreciate Penn State as a classy and sympath...
On College Football 2021: Week 10 Recap and Week 11 P...
Dan* said:
Hey Ken, congratulations on the win yesterday! Some really odd choices by our coaching staff in that...


<< Previous: Television: NBC Thur... | Next: Apple Watch: New iPo... >>

Getting Close Now
Saturday, 2004 October 23 - 1:13 pm
Just ten days left to the election, and there are reasons for Democrats to be hopeful.

Here are five reasons Democrats should be optimistic about Kerry beating Bush, despite the closeness of the polls.

(1) Those who remain undecided will probably back Kerry in the end. There are more people saying that Bush should not be re-elected, than there are people saying Kerry is their choice. Eventually, those people will figure out that the best way to get Bush out of office is to vote for Kerry (unless you're one of those lunatic Nader supporters).

(2) Bush's support is concentrated in the "red states". So while his popular vote numbers are high, his electoral college vote numbers might not be as high. We may see a reversal of the 2000 election, where Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college vote.

(3) The polls still fail to adequately account for the massive influx of new voters. It is still anyone's guess as to how strongly those voters will turn out. But when you've even got rapper Eminem saying he'll vote this year, for the first time ever, it's a pretty good indication that political apathy is no longer the "in" thing.

(4) There's been a lot of dirty campaigning this year, and people may be getting tired of it. I think that only serves to benefit Kerry. Bush has had to rely more on mudslinging to make his case, and people are starting to get immune to the rhetoric. And, Bush has had to make himself appear less like a President and more like a politician, and that negates his leadership credentials.

(5) A Republican elector from West Virginia has hinted that he might not vote for Bush. With the electoral college race potentially very close, that could make a difference... especially if one or two other Republican electors act similarly.

Still, this isn't the time to get complacent. Every vote will still matter, even in the states currently not considered to be "battleground" states. Really, I'm still hopeful that Kerry can win North Carolina, because I can see the passion of local Democratic volunteers, and I think there's a real possibility that voter turnout in the Raleigh and Charlotte metropolitan areas can outgun Bush's support in the rural communities.

Here's a football analogy (because Americans understand football): It's the fourth quarter and the Democrats are down by a point; but they have the ball and are moving downfield. It might come down to the placekicker, but he's made clutch game-winning kicks before. It's all about execution now.

Everyone, start holding your breath.
Permalink   Bookmark and Share
Posted by Ken in: politics

Comments

There are no comments on this article.

Comments are closed for this post.
Login


Search This Site
Powered by FreeFind