Real Kato Blog: The Debate, Round 1 Results

I have to say: wow! I think Kerry hit a home run.

Now, I know the tendency is to give extra credit to your own candidate. But I'd say that by any measure, Kerry won this debate. He clearly articulated his message while Bush stammered through his stump-speech lines. Don't get me wrong: Bush did score some points, and Kerry missed some opportunities. But I think Kerry accomplished everything he set out to do, including getting under Bush's skin.

Okay, first, to score Kerry against my six advice points from last night:

- I don't think Kerry was as pre-emptive against Bush as he could have been. He did defuse the flip-flopper thing early on, but didn't take the wind out of Bush's sails as well as he could have. I'll give him 2 out of 4 points here.
- Kerry grabbed the "leadership" mantle very effectively. 4 out of 4 points.
- Kerry did score a few points about being smarter than Bush, but didn't press the issue. 2 out of 4 points.
- Kerry kept to the topic pretty well, but on at least two occasions, went back to an earlier question. 3 out of 4 points.
- Kerry got his attack through, and didn't let Bush's attacks get to him. 4 out of 4 points.
- Kerry looked calm and relaxed through the whole thing, especially compared to Bush's pouting. (I thought the candidates weren't supposed to be shown when they weren't speaking. Hm. That worked to Bush's disadvantage this time around.) 4 out of 4 points.

So overall score for Kerry compared to my own battle plan: 19/24. Pretty darn good, and better than I expected.

Now, I'll compare the two candidates question-for-question, based on my scoring system (up to 4 points for: answering the question directly, being factually correct, being credible, and being charismatic).

Kerry - Do you believe you could do a better job than President Bush of preventing another 9/11 attack?
A good softball for Kerry. Kerry comes out strong here, and immediately goes on the attack, setting the tone for the debate. Bush is prepared for the rebuttal but already looks uncomfortable. Kerry 4, Bush 3.

Bush - Will the election of Sen. Kerry make the U.S. more vulnerable to a terrorist attack?
A dangerous question for Bush, since it could make him seem too negative. He avoids the question entirely! Kerry gets a free chance to score a few points. Kerry 2, Bush 1.

Kerry - What colossal misjudgments has Bush made?
Another softball. Kerry really goes on the attack now. Bush again seems somewhat rattled. Kerry 4, Bush 3.

Bush - How would you compare the priority of pursuing Saddam Hussein versus Osama Bin Laden?
Bush answers this pretty well; he says we're capable of doing both. Kerry makes the proper response (citing figures on troop allocations and spending). Kerry 4, Bush 4.

Kerry - What would you do differently to improve homeland security?
They keep serving them up, Kerry keeps hitting them out of the park. Perhaps Bush is unnerved by the fact that Kerry gets these easy questions while Bush is getting loaded questions. Liberal media conspiracy, hmm. Kerry 4, Bush 3.

Bush - What criteria would you use to decide when to bring troops home from Iraq?
Bush does better here, and actually manages to answer the question. Kerry's response is a bit vague, though he manages to hit some talking points. Kerry 3, Bush 4.

Kerry - Are Americans now dying in Iraq for a mistake?
The first loaded question to Kerry; he dodges this knowing that he doesn't want to devalue the sacrifice of soldiers. Bush is prepared for this but doesn't take full advantage. Kerry 3, Bush 3.

Bush - What was the miscalculation of the post-war conditions in Iraq?
And when did you stop beating your wife? Bush is lost here, and just fills time. Kerry gets a free shot again. Kerry 4, Bush 1.

Kerry - Give an example of when Bush didn't tell the truth.
Kerry does give some examples, but could have made his points more forcefully. Bush gives a decent rebuttal. But the followup discussion, Kerry makes a killing! Kerry 4, Bush 2.

Bush - Has the war in Iraq been worth the cost in American lives?
A really tough question; Bush goes to a prepared story. Kerry avoids the question too. Kerry 2, Bush 2.

Kerry - Can you give us specifics (scenario/timeline) for ending U.S. military involvement?
Kerry doesn't give much in the way of specific, but hits his talking points again. Ditto for Bush, though he seems visibly perturbed now. Kerry 2, Bush 1.

Bush - Does the Iraq experience make it more or less likely that you will take the U.S. into another preemptive action?
Another minefield for Bush; he avoids the question and again seems lost. Kerry brings out the big guns here, and catches Bush mixing up Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden! Hooray! Kerry 4, Bush 0.

Kerry - What is your position on the whole concept of pre-emptive war?
This is a trap, but Kerry doesn't fall for it; he says he supports the right to pre-emptive war, if certain standards are met. A very strong answer. Bush's rebuttal is weak ("I don't know what he means when he says global standards"). Kerry 4, Bush 1.

Bush - Do you believe that diplomacy and sanctions can resolve the nuclear situation with N. Korea and Iran?
He's vulnerable here and he knows it. He dances around the question. Kerry should have taken Bush to task for talking up multilateral diplomacy here, while downplaying it with regards to Iraq. Kerry makes some good points, misses a big chance. Kerry 3, Bush 2.

Kerry - Why has no one discussed sending troops into the Sudan?
Doesn't spend much time on this; manages to say that we're overcommitted. Bush's response is even weaker; he can't answer the charge that the U.S. is not providing logistical support. Kerry 3, Bush 2.

Bush - Are there underlying character issues serious enough to deny Sen. Kerry the job of President?
Another dangerous question for Bush! He doesn't want to get sucked into name-calling. He's properly subtle here, but so is Kerry. Kerry 4, Bush 4.

Kerry - What is the single most serious threat to the security of the United States?
Here's a good balanced question. Both answer nuclear (or, um, nukelar) proliferation. Kerry scores on clarity; he's able to answer the question immediately and decisively. I can't believe Bush is so shaky; what's with the long pauses? Kerry 4, Bush 3.

Bush - Do you feel that what Putin is doing in reversing democratic processes to combat terrorism is okay?
This is a hidden softball for Kerry! Bush, of course, denounces Putin's actions but hedges his bets by saying it's important to fight terrorism. This would be the perfect opportunity for Kerry to talk about the Patriot Act and civil liberties, but he doesn't! He does better in the followup discussion. Kerry 3, Bush 2.

TOTAL SCORE: Kerry 60, Bush 40.

This is actually pretty close to how the post-debate polls went, so I'm proud of my little scoring system. And I'm pretty darn pleased with how the debate went. Nice work, Senator!

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