Real Kato Blog: College Football 2022: Week 11 Recap and Week 12 Preview

Michigan grinds down Nebraska; Penn State dominates Maryland; NC State loses an embarrassing one.

Michigan 34, Nebraska 7
This was kind of like watching a wrestling match where one guy is a hundred pounds heavier and simply sits on the other guy for three hours. Nebraska did a little bit of wriggling by completing a big pass on its first third down, and did manage to score once on a drive largely aided by a personal foul penalty, but otherwise couldn't do much of anything. Meanwhile, Michigan's offense tried a few downfield shots, failed, and then decided to just run the ball for 7 yards at a time for the rest of the day. The end.

The total yardage was 412-146. This game was not close to being competitive. We did see a couple of worrying things, like a little bit of inaccuracy from McCarthy on deep balls, though it was a wet day and that may have contributed to that. We also saw Michigan edge rushers lose containment on the Nebraska quarterbacks a couple of times. While Mike Morris and Jaylen Harrell have mostly been a pleasant surprise this season, we do have to remember that they're not Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, and we always knew that DE could be a weak spot in the defense. But it's hard to complain on a day where Nebraska only managed eight first downs and averaged three yards per play.

Michigan vs Illinois, 12:00 PM ABC
Michigan's final home game, and final tuneup before Ohio State, comes against a fairly impressive 7-3 Illinois team that has wins over the likes of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. But they've dropped their last two now, first to Michigan State and then to Purdue, and now they're rather unlikely to win the Big Ten West.

Illinois under former Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has become something like a mini-Michigan: they've got a complex and varied rushing attack, a decent defense, and a preference to try to control the ball on long drives and not give up big plays on defense. Tailback Chase Brown is among the best in the country, though is status is questionable after tweaking an ankle last week. QB Tommy Devito is a transfer from Syracuse and is an accurate and heady game manager; not as athletic as JJ McCarthy, but he rarely makes mistakes and has a knack for rescuing broken plays. This will not be a Benny Hill offense like many of the teams Michigan has faced this year.

The defense is also similar to Michigan's. They've been especially stout against the run, though it should be noted that they haven't faced many good rushing attacks. They did beat Minnesota, that was mostly due to three turnovers; Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim still got 127 yards on 15 carries in that game. So the holes are there.

It will probably be a slog. On what's likely to be a cold, windy day, we might not see a lot of passing. That's probably good for Illinois, who has a number of injuries in the secondary. The key for Michigan will be to stay at home on defense, as Devito is a capable runner and will pull the ball on zone reads.

Prediction: Michigan 28, Illinois 17.

Penn State 30, Maryland 0
This was an absolute shellacking, as the Penn State defense completely hemmed in the Maryland offense. Nick Singleton had a 45-yard breakout TD run on a 4th-and-1 conversion, on his way to a 122-yard day. Sean Clifford didn't have to do much in this game; Drew Allar came in in the third quarter.

It's a good sign for the defense, as the Maryland offense had shown themselves to be capable of moving the ball against other teams. Penn State's pass defense has been stout against most teams (with OSU being a notable exception), and that will likely carry them the rest of the season.

Penn State at Rutgers, 3:30 PM BTN
Rutgers, despite losing 6 of their last 7, might prove to be a better opponent than Maryland was. They kept it close against Michigan State last week, racking up 460 yards with a balanced attack. Penn State can't sleep on this one.

As they did against Michigan, Rutgers is likely to pull out some gambles early to stake out some early points. They know they can't compete by exchanging long drives, so they'll need to score some big plays or turnovers to survive. Penn State would do well to do what Michigan did, which is to stay calm and stick to the script. The offense doesn't need to play hero ball; the defense will be good enough to get the job done.

Prediction: Penn State 34, Rutgers 9.

NC State 20, Boston College 21
I can't see this as anything but an embarrassment for NC State, blowing a 13-point second half lead and losing at home to a 2-7 opponent. MJ Morris was inaccurate, and worse, he coughed up four turnovers (three fumbles and an interception). Meanwhile the defense gave up 330 yards passing to BC freshman backup QB Emmett Morehead, playing in just his second career start.

Turnovers were the story, to be sure, but overall State just isn't consistent enough at any position. This game had to be particularly painful for the home fans, who had seen State win 16 consecutive home games up to this point. With that, State's hopes of a 10-win regular season and a premium bowl game, are up in smoke. With games left against Louisville and UNC, both 7-5 and 9-3 are in play, but regardless, this will likely be seen as a disappointing year.

NC State at Louisville, 3:30 PM ACCN
6-4 Louisville has a win against Wake Forest under its belt, but has lost to most of the quality opponents they've faced, including Syracuse, Florida State, and Clemson. And oh yeah, they also lost to BC. Starting QB Malik Cunningham is questionable to play with a shoulder injury; backup Brock Domann has played a fair amount this year but is a bit of a drop-off talent-wise.

I dunno, man. It's just hard to know what to make of State any more. Before the BC game I would have said NC State would be a clear favorite, but now it looks like a complete toss-up. Betting lines have Louisville as a four point favorite at home, and that seems close to accurate.

Prediction: NC State 17, Louisville 21.

Notable Results
#4 TCU beat #18 Texas 17-10. Many people had picked Texas for this one; TCU's defense was surprisingly strong, though. #25 Washington upset #6 Oregon 37-34, leaving USC as the Pac-12 best long-shot hope for a playoff berth. #7 LSU held off Arkansas 13-10. #9 Alabama scored two fourth-quarter field goals to beat Ole Miss 30-24. Arizona shocked #12 UCLA 34-28. #15 UNC beat Wake Forest 36-34, clinching the ACC Coastal. #22 UCF beat #17 Tulane 38-31. #20 Notre Dame struggled but got by Navy 35-32. Purdue upset #21 Illinois 31-24. #23 Florida State crushed Syracuse 38-3. Vanderbilt got its first SEC win in four seasons, upsetting #24 Kentucky 24-21. Michigan State got by Rutgers 27-21. Iowa somehow beat Wisconsin 24-10 despite only gaining 146 yards on offense; of course, one of their touchdowns was scored by the defense.

Games to Watch on TV
Illinois is at #3 Michigan at noon on ABC. #4 TCU is at Baylor on Fox. Wisconsin is at Nebraska on ESPN. Indiana is at Michigan State on BTN.

At 3:30 PM, #11 Penn State is at Rutgers on BTN. #24 NC State is at Louisville on ACCN. #1 Georgia is at Kentucky on CBS. #2 Ohio State is at Maryland on ABC. Miami is at #9 Clemson on ESPN. At 4:00, Iowa is at Minnesota on Fox.

At 7:30 PM, #22 Oklahoma State is at Oklahoma on ABC. At 8:00 PM, #7 USC is at #16 UCLA. I suppose this is your Game of the Week. Syracuse is at Wake Forest on ACCN. At 10:30 PM, #10 Utah is at #12 Oregon on ESPN.

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