Real Kato Blog: Gore Endorses Dean

Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean's presidential candidacy this week, surprising many Democratic party activists.

I found it interesting that Al Gore, the de facto face of the Democratic party, would throw his considerable political clout behind a Democratic candidate so early in the nomination process. Joe Lieberman's supporters were understandably outraged; supporters of John Kerry, John Edwards, and Wesley Clark were undoubtedly distressed by this turn of events. The message from Gore seems to be clear: the party needs to unite quickly in order to have a chance against George W and his war chest, and it's time we fall in line behind the front-runner.

Unfortunately, it's usually the early party front-runners that have the least chance of winning the general election, because the front-runners are the ones who are the most politically polarized, and thus are most likely to gain the support of the hard-core party loyalists and activists. But loyalists and activists will vote Democratic anyway; traditional wisdom says that Democrats need a candidate who will appeal to the moderates, the so-called "Reagan Democrats". Edwards and Clark seem to fit that bill the best, but both are being hammered by party radicals for their sometimes-conservative leanings.

One would think Gore would have learned some things from Bill Clinton's successful centrist campaign in 1992. But maybe, Gore is afraid of his own mistakes in the 2000 campaign: that the Democratic party will be adrift without a clear message or a clear identity. And there's certainly some truth to that. Perhaps Democrats need a candidate that Republicans will hate, just as much as Democrats hate Dubya.

It's a risky strategy for the Democrats: to count on the fact that "true" Democrats will be angry enough about Dubya, and about the 2000 election, to turn out in droves in 2004. It's tough to predict at this point whether that strategy will pay off.

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