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Apple iPad Thoughts
Wednesday, 2010 January 27 - 8:20 pm
So it's here, the iPad. The essential specs:

9.7" diagonal 1024x768 IPS LCD display
802.11n WiFi, Bluetooth, and optional 3G
1 GHz Apple A4 Processor
16GB, 32GB, or 64GB Flash
10-hour battery life
Microphone and speaker
30-pin dock connector
Accelerometer and compass; in the 3G version, GPS
iPhone OS 3.2; runs iPhone apps
$499 for 16GB/WiFi model; $829 for top-end 64GB/WiFi+3G model

I'll run through how I did with my predictions, and then give some more thoughts about the device.

Size: I was mostly right here; it's a 9.7" diagonal screen. It's not widescreen, though, and the resolution is only 1024x768. I guess widescreen doesn't make sense for something that will often be used in portrait orientation. 1024x768 is big enough to handle productivity apps; indeed, Apple trotted out an iPad version of the iWork suite. I think I got the key point right: this is intended to be a netbook-killer, not a PDA replacement.

Shape: I was wrong and most of the rumor sites were right: it's essentially just an oversized iPhone. They tried to solve the ergonomic issues with clever software, I think: Apple recently filed patents for a touch screen that ignores accidental input from palms and thumbs that might be holding the screen. There's no front-facing speaker, either. Like the iPhone, the speaker is on the bottom edge. You probably wouldn't want to watch a movie or listen to music with that speaker.

Price: I was right that $999 was way too high. I thought we'd see Apple try to maximize their margins, but instead, they went aggressive and put the bottom-end model at $499. That's right in the sweet spot for going after netbooks and low-end laptops.

OS: I was partly right. It's iPhone-y, with additional UI elements like pop-over menus. But I was wrong about multitasking (more on that later), and wrong in thinking that it would be more of a hybrid iPhone/OS X thing. It's iPhone through and through, even to the point of running existing iPhone apps unmodified.

Interface: I had hoped for a new paradigm, but it largely follows the iPhone language of swipes and gestures. There's a few wrinkles like pinch-to-close and double-tap-for-menu, but for the most part it seems they tried to say true to the iPhone UI conventions.

Media: The inclusion of iTunes content was obvious; including an e-book reader was similarly almost a given. Apple did line up deals with book publishers, but it remains to be seen how large their library is. (Of course you could always get books from Amazon using the iPhone Kindle app.) There's no TV subscription stuff, and unfortunately, there was no specific mention of college textbooks. Maybe that will come later.

Communications: I was mostly right here; AT&T turned out to be the wireless data provider. Interestingly, though, the data service is contract-free (so I guess AT&T isn't subsidizing the price) and the iPad is unlocked, meaning that other GSM providers like T-Mobile will probably get in on the game quickly.

Okay... so I did pretty well with my predictions. Now, about the device itself.

First, the name... yeah. We all get the feminine hygiene product connection, and undoubtedly we'll see lots of writers entertaining themselves with headlines like "Max-iPad Productivity for Women!" But I can see why Apple went with this name; it's easy-to-remember and iconic. "iSlate" could have been problematic, since it could be read "is late". "iTablet" seems too generic. So I get the reasoning behind "iPad", and hopefully everyone will grow up and quit giggling about it.

As for the product positioning: I can say that if I were in the market for a small laptop, I'd definitely consider the iPad as a replacement. Since I have a desktop where I do most of my computing, I don't need a heavy-weight portable device; I'd want something that's a good travel device, something that can surf the web, play media, and perhaps give me a way to get photos off my camera and onto my web site or Facebook. The iPad does all of those things.

However, since I've already got a travel-friendly laptop and an iPhone, an iPad would kind of be redundant for me. My needs are largely met by those other devices. I can kind of illustrate the issue with this diagram:

Portable device curve

Without a small laptop or an iPhone, the iPad would fill a hole in the power-versus-portability spectrum. But having both of those devices, I've got the spectrum covered. So for me, there'd have to be a killer app of some kind to warrant purchasing this thing, and thus far, I haven't seen it.

That's not to say this gadget isn't the coolest thing I've seen in a long time... and it's doesn't rule out the possibility that I might just get one for the hell of it. And it's certainly superior to a netbook. Steve Jobs was sure to point out that netbooks are slow, cramped, and saddled with non-touch-friendly desktop PC software. This is the device that Apple wants to use to demonstrate why they never got into the netbook market in the first place.

Software-wise, it's very iPhone-like. Many people were quick to notice that, like the iPhone, the iPad doesn't appear to support multitasking. But I've come to realize that that's only an issue in a few cases: one, if you want to play audio in the background through something other than iTunes (like Pandora); two, if the application you're using doesn't save data continuously (like some games, or like almost every application written for desktop PCs); and three, if the application you're using goes through a lengthy initial startup process (like GPS apps that have to locate a GPS signal). The first item is something Apple probably doesn't care about, since they want iTunes to be your music player anyway. The other two problems are really issues for application developers. I think Apple thinks it's more important to maximize battery life and system performance than to stick to a user paradigm that's more suited for desktop computing.

The 3G data plan comes from AT&T, but not for reasons I expected. I thought that it would be an add-on to your existing AT&T contract, but instead, it's a completely separate contract-free prepaid plan. And what's more, the iPad is unlocked. I think Apple isn't interested in locking themselves into AT&T with another device, so this time, they're keeping their options open.

At $30/month for unlimited data, that's not bad. It's certainly cheaper than most dedicated data plans. I suspect, though, that most home users will find that WiFi access is enough. Unlike your iPhone, this isn't necessarily something you'll use while commuting to work or while standing in line at the DMV; more often, you'll use it in your house or in your office. So it definitely makes sense that 3G is optional. Of course, it'd be awesome if it could ride on the 3G connection provided by the iPhone. But who knows if AT&T will ever let that happen.

I assume AT&T also won't allow VoIP phone calls or video streaming over the iPad's 3G connection.

Finally, I think the lack of a front-facing camera is a real missed opportunity. This could have been a great video communications device, even if it were WiFi only. Maybe Apple's saving that for the second generation.

In all, this is a really interesting device. Apple clearly wasn't ready to cede a multi-billion-dollar market segment to makers of crappy netbooks and half-baked Windows tablets. They've staked their claim with a beautifully designed and extremely powerful product. Some have predicted that they'll sell ten million of these things in the first year. Some of those sales might come at the expense of low-end MacBooks, but Apple's probably okay with that. They figure people will still need computers to run iTunes and their other iLife apps, so it's not necessarily a lost sale.

A lot of pundits had predicted the tablet would fail even before seeing the device. Most thought it would be $999. I wonder what they have to say now?
Permalink  2 Comment   Bookmark and Share
Posted by Ken in: techwatch

Comments

Comment #1 from Ellen Brasington (Guest)
2010 Jan 28 - 8:54 am : #
I want one! :)
Comment #2 from Jimmy Whales (Guest)
2010 Feb 15 - 6:34 pm : #
I'm already returning my HP Mini to Costco so I can get one of these for my wife. It kills me though, because I know they will go through at least two improvement cycles by Christmas 2011. WiMax/4G, camera, video, and more. I just wish I could go to a laptop rental place and save my dough until they get better.

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